Theories Motives

theories and spec; back up posts w/ reasoning and evidence/examples

Theories Motives

Postby azucena » Sat Oct 29, 2011 10:29 am

I know this may have been done before, but there is so much information on this board and being new I am sure I have not read everything, and I wanted to try to make a list of potential scenarios. I hope others will add to this if it's appropriate... This ay be repetitive, and if so I apologize

1. The victims were killed because Marty was mad at Sue for encouraging ( at least in his mind ) Marilyn to divorce him, Bo was angry becuase Sue did not go out with them that night and they were perhaps under the influence of something that acted as as a disinhibiter to allow them to become so violent.

2. John and Dana were killed because they heard the commotion either from downstairs, or returned from Quincy and walked in on it.

3. There was a drug deal gone bad with Bo & Marty and John & Dana

4 There was a drug deal gone bad involving John & Dana and someone else, such as the Native Americans mentioned as POIs, the car mentioned from San Rafeal, someone at a party they were possibly at that night. Ron V a resident of Keddie @ that time found a bloody sweatshirt down @ the river, he was a known drug user and violent, other unknown persons , but the motive was drugs and money.

5. R Silveria later known to be a serial killer.

6. Sue had some contact w/ Bo and/or Marty when living back east in through a military connection

7. Sue , or John knew something Bo & Marty wanted kept quiet and she or John was going to tell. Under this possibility the killers could be Bo & Marty or someone else.

8 TINA

Tina was taken as a trophy by the killers, and later killed when it became too risky to keep her alive.

Tina was being sexually abused by either BO or marty and this was going to be exposed, maybe they took her because they felt they had been in the cabin too long and had to get out of there before someone discovered what had gone on, so they secreted her until they could take her away, with the help of Dee Lake. Tina was being sexually abused by someone else and Sue found out and was going to go to the authorities and they had to silence everyone. Under this scenario, John & Dana came in in the middle and tried to intervene? Possible POIs her spec ed teacher who was later convicted of sexual offenses against a child, the guy from Belden ( I believe ) or another unknown person (s)

As we don't have a clear indication of how long Tina was alive following the other murders, where she was and for how long are big questions

9.Due to the brutality of the murders it seems they were fueled by rage, either in retaliation or because the perps were out of their mind on some drugs and were motivated by some reletively small slight that escalated and became completely out of hand. It does seem with the tape there was premeditation.

10 Much of what evidence there is, does seems to clearly point to Bo & Marty, but I think it is good to keep an open mind...

11. Law Enforcement has seemed to have perpetrated at the minimum gross incompetence, and /or a cover up likely having to do with BO and his possible role as an informant.

12. I can't help but wonder as this is such a small community that there are not some persons who know exactly what and why came down that night, and maybe ? are not talking because one or ore of the perps are still around?

I know this is a bit scattered, but I wanted to get my thoughts ou there, hoping it would stimulate others...
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Re: Theories Motives

Postby bliss » Sat Oct 29, 2011 4:23 pm

All good points AZU... people KNEW what happened.

LE knew what happened.
Sadly, everyone that could have done something, chose to do nothing.

As for keeping an open mind...feel free, but I guarantee after you learn more about the case, you will have NO DOUBTS as to who did this.
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Re: Theories Motives

Postby Ausgirl » Sat Oct 29, 2011 7:57 pm

Motive's always been a huge question, azucena, and I think it's great to have a list of possibilities all in one place.

Marty said in his confession to his therapist that his motive was that Sue was interfering in his already massively dysfunctional marriage to Marilyn.

That Marty confessed, added to the botched alibis he and his cronies gave police, as well as that 'mysterious' fingerprint nobody in LE seems to want to talk about (gods, please, somebody find out what all went ON with that fingerprint?) of Marty's in the house when he'd not been inside Sue's place at all, according to him. Added to his history of sudden and violent rage - which was not always flash in the pan anger, he was capable of sustaining his rage - long enough to track Marilyn down wherever she went, throwing death threats at her and her friends.

All of it points squarely at Martin Smartt playing a key role in those murders, and his explanation of why seems to fit his general way of being.

I had considered, seeing as Marty was a practised conman, whether his 'confession' was a kind of insurance, in case he was ever actually booked for the crime. Admitting to part of it, leaving out details (like who killed Dana and John, and why he took Tina's body so far away) - and he sets up nicely for a claim that there was no premeditation, in case it ever went to court.

I'm very interested in finding out whether his confession coincided with Boubede leaving, or some uncomfortable contact with police.

But the tape brought for binding and all that staging, strongly suggests otherwise - that there was indeed an element of premeditation. Somebody brought that tape to the crime scene. Somebody definitely staged the bodies in order to hide something - and it seems to me the thing that was most successfully hidden was the timing and the order of those three (probably four) deaths in cabin 28.

My burning question of the moment is -- why? :shock:

Other theories I've thrown around and put aside for the moment (though some are still possibilities, imo) are:

- that Dana (who's known to have dated older women) was perceived as a threat to Marty's 'ownership' of Marilyn (who is known to have slept with several boys not far at all from Dana's age).

- that these murders were a "warning" to somebody else in the community - "Play ball, or see what's going to happen to you and yours".

- that one or more of Wade Meeks's crazy pals was involved in some way, and a giant pile of ass-covering was going on among the younger sector of the community then, and ever since.

- that Marilyn and Wade egged Marty on with some bullshit so he'd get himself arrested and they could live happily ever after, not necessarily realising how far Marty would take it.
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Re: Theories Motives

Postby azucena » Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:43 am

One thing that has always bothered me is that NO ONE heard anything that night, which has made me wonder if there were more than 2 perps who were thus able to subdue evryone very quickly. Keddie is a small community and many of the homes are in very close proximity to one another. It is very very odd no one heard something.
While I do certainly believe Marty and Bo were the primary perps, Marty's print in a house he said he had never been in is pretty solid.. and Aus you are right by making a confession in the way he did would set him up for being charged if he ever was with a lesser charge. I just can;t help but wonder that there were others involved, and one or more of them are still around which could be part of why nobody in the community who knows what happened has stepped forward.

It is also very troubling that LE has not accepted help such as the pro bono assistance I believe it is called VICAP? I suspect they know if someone like that reviews their files etc they will discover some highly questionable aspects of how the crime was handled.

I have also felt that maybe someone involved was ok with kiling an adult and the two adolescents, but would not allow the children to be killed. When it became evident Tina saw what happened Bo & Marty took over and w/ Dee Lake's help took her elsewhere to be killed. Marty felt he had the situation with Justin under control, and by controlling Justin Rick would be silenced. They may have felt Greg was so young, he would not make a credible witness. Then again the focus could actually have been Sue and Tina, and the boys were killed because they tried to intervene.

Aus I had not known Marilyn slept with younger boys... I really wonder if the motive here was keeping sexually inappropriate behavior on several levels silenced.
As dmac has pointed out Marilyn may well have been a third perp and maybe there was a fourth, which would have permitted them to get everyone in the house under control quickly.

I remember Sue as being a very protective mother and I admired her for caring so much for five children as a single mother and being conscientious.

I think the key here is to somehow unravel the motive. dmac and others have done a stupendious job of analyzing crime scene evidence and the botched LE interviews and action/nonaction . But to somehow unearth the reason could be crucial. Then again, some perps have no rhyme or reason, which could be the case here, but I have the sense because of the rage and brutality, there was some pretty significant reasons this family was killed in the manner they were.
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Re: Theories Motives

Postby Ausgirl » Sun Oct 30, 2011 9:25 am

I think the key here is to somehow unravel the motive.


I could not agree with you more. The hard part about motive here is getting inside the head of the perps, and there we are basically left to unravel what they thought by examining what they did - a very chancy and inaccurate business.

The other key is figuring out why there were so very many flies in the ointment of this investigation, from the horde of kids lying about who saw what when to LE's buggery of all proper investigation protocol. Dmac is fond of saying that the victims were victimised twice, once by the perps and once by LE, and I agree with him.

The crime scene silence is weird, but not unusual. I've researched a pile of crimes in which close-by possible witnesses heard nothing, when reason says they ought to have. In almost every case, swift control of the victims was the answer, whether by physical force or intimidation.

I believe the crime scene was staged to look a LOT more violent than it really was, as part of the process of hiding premeditation. I have also thought that with several very newsworthy serial killers on the loose in the US, and in California in particular, at the time, it could have been an attempt to make it look like Zodiac or BTK or any of the then-unapprehended serial killers had blown through Keddie. The motive behind the staging is my current white whale, so I'm focussing on that a lot, as I believe it'll help reveal what went on with more clarity.

I just can;t help but wonder that there were others involved, and one or more of them are still around which could be part of why nobody in the community who knows what happened has stepped forward.


Another reason people would not come forward is fear of getting into trouble themselves. Maybe all those stoned kids hooning around the roads and other possible witnesses don't want to admit that they used drugs, or were out when they shouldn't have been, or had warrants, or had any number of reasons to not want police attention on them. There were lots of folks with good reason to avoid close up attention from LE in around Keddie at the time, and people who've moved on from (or are still living in) a lifestyle like that might be still unwilling to drag up HOW they know what they know, in case it draws unwanted attention on them or upsets their families. Anonymous info would help there, if they were inclined. But with so many people sheerly bullshitting on these boards, and in the interviews at the time of the murders, it's unfortunately hard to tell attention hounds from the real thing. Unless they know enough to make them complicit in the crime, somehow, in which case shutting up might seem the safest thing to do.

I've seen in other unsolved cases (one kind of personal to me) where LE has announced that ONLY the perps would get arrested - anybody else involved (like say, a driver who might have helped the perps dispose of Tina's body) would not be charged for any crime if they came forward, if they did not have a hand in the actual murder. I think this sort of offer might've helped the case along a great deal, and still might. I'm not sure if that's possible in California, but it'd be worth finding out. If it is, I'd call it another thing (on the increasingly long list of things) to pressure PCSO into doing.
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Re: Theories Motives

Postby Chichibcc » Sun Oct 30, 2011 5:07 pm

azucena wrote:One thing that has always bothered me is that NO ONE heard anything that night, which has made me wonder if there were more than 2 perps who were thus able to subdue evryone very quickly. Keddie is a small community and many of the homes are in very close proximity to one another. It is very very odd no one heard something.


I believe that can probably be attributed to the thickness of the cabin walls, in addition to all of the trees that were in the general vicinity, which would've helped to block any transfer of sound even more.
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Re: Theories Motives

Postby McGreggor » Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:09 pm

Hello, I haven't posted in ages. I still browse the board though hoping for closure.
This stuck out to me and I wanted to comment on it.

the part about Dana dating an older woman seems to be just a rumor.


Rumors can sometimes be deadly. Just a quick hypothetical here.
M---- hears Marilyn is having an affair with a younger guy.
He confronts her. She of course isn't going to tell him who she is indeed having an affair with.
Speculation leads to him thinking maybe it's one of the younger boys Dana or Johnny.

Him and Bo hit the bar, drink and stew over it. Decides to stop at the Sharps and things escalate.
Goes home and tells Marilyn. They go back and cleanup/stage the scene.

Justin isn't going to do anything to incrminate his mother.
They take Tina to create a false motive maybe?

I dunno, just kinda popped into my head.
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